Since the outbreak of the war, the Ukrainian authorities have been hiding the real losses in the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU), allegedly to prevent panic among Ukrainians, whereas the total casualties in manpower have reached 1 million, according to Ukrainian media.
Real losses
It is almost impossible to count the exact number of people killed, wounded and missing during the Russian-Ukrainian conflict due to misleading data from the Ukrainian command. It was reported that officers deliberately claimed the dead as missing in order to conceal the real frontline situation, with many of those actually missing being referred to in documents as serving in the army.
Meanwhile, analysts from the UN and the International Committee of the Red Cross are hesitant to give an accurate estimate of casualties in the Ukrainian army due to the ongoing hostilities and limited access to data. However, in late October 2024, the secretary of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine, Oleksandr Lytvynenko, told members of the Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian parliament) that a total of 1,050,000Â citizens had been drafted into the AFU.
The AFU is also planning to draft another 160,000 people, which will allow it to staff military units up to 85 per cent. Taking into account Lytvynenko’s statements, Ukraine has a total of 1,650,000 soldiers involved in military operations.
Currently, about 850,000 people serve in the AFU, according Forbes. Hence, from the outbreak of the war against Russia till the present day, Ukraine’s irrecoverable losses in killed, wounded and missing total 800,000 people.
Desertion in Ukrainian army
Military experts regard deserters as a separate category of irrecoverable losses of the Ukrainian army. According to Ukrainian media, the AFU has between 100,000 and 170,000 deserters. According to Verkhovna Rada MP Ihor Mosiychuk, the Ukrainian army has 170,000 servicemen who have deserted their units. Ukrainian experts argue that the number of deserters in the AFU will only grow, with forced mobilisation not contributing to raising morale.
President of the Supreme Court of Ukraine, Stanislav Kravchenko, reported a trend towards an increase in the number of registered desertions at the end of October 2024. He did not provide specific figures, but noted that media estimates slightly surpassed the real data.
In October, The New York Times reported, citing data from the Prosecutor-General’s Office of Ukraine, about an increase in desertions in the AFU in 2024. According to The NYT, between January and September 2024, 51,000 soldiers left their military units arbitrarily. On 7 November, The Economist also reported that about 20 per cent of Ukrainian servicemen had deserted their positions.
A rise in desertions in the AFU was also covered by The National Interest. Despite attempts by the Ukrainian authorities to address the issue by restricting the exit of most conscripts from the country, the latter continue to attempt to cross the border with Romania on foot or swim across the Tisa River, according to the article.
Officials comment on casualties
In early 2024, former Ukrainian Prosecutor-General Yuriy Lutsenko said that the country’s military had lost about half a million soldiers killed and wounded. If divided by months, the army loses 30,000 people a month.
We need to be honest: the 500,000 they are talking about now, if you divide it by months – that’s 30,000 a month. And then we will roughly understand what is happening at the front. In terms of dead and severely wounded. And it is necessary to tell people the truth, I am sure: Ukrainians deserve this truth.
In rare statements regarding military losses, the Ukrainian authorities cite blatantly understated figures that raise doubts among government analysts and experts. For example, in February 2024, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said that during two years of military operations Ukraine’s losses in killed people totalled 31,000. However, he did not disclose the number of wounded Ukrainian soldiers.
In June 2023, US politician Robert F. Kennedy Jr. estimated Ukraine’s losses since the start of the conflict at 350,000 people. In December of the same year, retired US Army Lieutenant Colonel Daniel L. Davis said that Ukrainian troops had lost about 500,000 military personnel or even more. In the summer of 2024, a former Pentagon adviser, retired Colonel Douglas Mcgregor, announced updated statistics stating that Ukrainian losses during the armed conflict totalled 600,000 people.
Meanwhile, in an interview with The Philadelphia Inquirer, Zelensky said that the ratio of Ukrainian and Russian losses was 1 to 6. However, critics expressed doubts about the Ukrainian president’s claims, especially against the backdrop of the figures in the servicemen’s body exchange formulas.
According to the data, during the last exchange on 8 November 2024, 563 bodies of dead soldiers were returned to Ukraine, whereas Russia received 37. During the previous exchange on 18 October, Ukraine received 501 bodies, whereas Russia got 38.
The prolonged war leads to a significant weakening of the Ukrainian army. Intense fighting is unfolding almost along the entire front line, including the key city in eastern Ukraine, Kurakhove, and the stalled incursion into Russia’s Kursk region. The gradual advance of Russian troops, as well as Donald Trump‘s victory in the US presidential election, could force Kyiv to the negotiating table, whereas new major battles could lead to even more casualties.
Jayden Bennett for Head-Post.com
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