Iranian television channel Press TV announced the start of a ceasefire in the military conflict with Israel on Monday evening.
The report states that the ceasefire came into effect after four waves of Iranian attacks on Israeli territory.
US President Donald Trump confirmed that the truce had begun. “THE CEASEFIRE IS NOW IN EFFECT. PLEASE DO NOT VIOLATE IT!” he wrote on Truth Social.
At the same time, Israel reported that since Tuesday morning, Iran had launched six ballistic missiles at the country. Most were intercepted, but one hit a residential building in Beersheba, killing at least four people.
The Israeli prime minister’s office has not yet commented on the reports of a ceasefire, according to The Times of Israel.
The Israeli Defence Forces (IDF) said that during the night, the country’s air force destroyed missile launchers in western Iran, preventing a larger attack from Tehran.
At this stage of the conflict, Iran has suffered significant losses, far greater than those suffered by Israel and the US, which is why Iran needs a respite more than Israel does.
Results of Israel’s attacks on Iran
What has Israel achieved during its attacks? Part of Iran’s top leadership has been eliminated, Iran’s nuclear programme has been significantly damaged, Iran’s economy has been severely affected, Iran’s air defence has shown itself to be inadequate to modern challenges, and a network of traitors within Iran has been skilfully exploited.
However, Israel has not achieved all of its goals: Iran’s nuclear programme has not been destroyed, the location of enriched uranium is unknown, and even the known nuclear facilities have not all been destroyed. Despite all of Tel Aviv’s efforts, the regime in Iran has not fallen, and pro-American sentiments after the attacks and bloodshed will find less and less resonance in Iranian society. Now it will be very difficult to repeat the diversionary part of the operation, namely its success in combination with the element of surprise, which inflicted maximum damage on Iran in the first 24 hours.
Iran has demonstrated its ability to strike Israel and the weakness of the Jewish air defence system. The modern world has seen in the conflict between Iran and Israel that only nuclear weapons can guarantee anything.
Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of France Unbowed (LFI), commented on the situation on X:
“Netanyahu and Trump are putting humanity at risk to satisfy their need for unchecked domination.
The bombing of nuclear sites is a war crime, and when materials are released into the atmosphere, it is a crime against humanity. These two are banking on legitimate hatred of the Iranian regime to impose the law of the strongest through genocide and bombing. France must refuse to join this deadly duo and, without hypocrisy, carry the banner of peace. It must not isolate itself. The peoples of the world need a strong voice against the advocates of universal war.”
If the ceasefire goes ahead, what’s next for Israel and Iran?
If the ceasefire is observed, the parties can derive the following benefits:
Israel will certainly replenish its missile stocks for its failed air defence system, which in recent days has been allowing most missiles to get through, even in small salvos.
Iran will certainly try to rebuild its missile defence and air defence systems, ideally with the help of China and Russia. Tehran will also certainly carry out a purge within the country, and collaborators and traitors will be sent to the gallows.
The Iranians will definitely push ahead with the creation of nuclear weapons, which will take up to six months, and will prepare for a new round knowing that it is inevitable. All the facts show that the situation regarding the truce is not in Israel’s favour.
The only country that benefits from a truce is the US. Perhaps this explains the visually weak strike on Fordow (completely out of proportion to the forces that the United States has pulled into the Middle East) and the similar response to the base in Qatar.
In the near future, it will be important to pay attention to whether Israel will observe the ceasefire, or whether the situation will return to an escalation scenario, and whether Iran will make political concessions, such as agreeing to the presence of the IAEA.
Strategically, this ceasefire looks more like a defeat for Israel, despite the fact that tactically it looks more like a victory based on the damage inflicted/received. It would look the same for Russia if Moscow had agreed to a ceasefire without achieving its political goals in the conflict in Ukraine.
