The latest forecasts from the Office for National Statistics suggest that the UK’s population growth may depend entirely on migrants, as the number of native-born Britons is set to decline over the next 30 years.
The analysis states that net migration will be the “only source of population growth in the UK over the next 25 years” as deaths regularly exceed births. Between 2024 and 2034, a staggering 7.2 million foreign nationals will move to England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland, adding 2.2 million to the population.
“Overall, it is projected that the population will grow by 3.1 million, with projected net migration totalling 5.6 million between mid-2024 and mid-2049. We project that net migration will reach the long-term assumption of 230,000 a year from mid-2027 onwards. Net migration remains the only source of expected population growth, though at a lower level than in our previous projections.”
The number of registered deaths will exceed the number of children born this year, the data scientists warned, with this trend set to continue for a quarter of a century. ONS forecasts stated that between 2024 and 2034, 6.39 million children will be born, whilst 6.84 million people will die. Overall, the population will reach 71 million.
“Our latest projections indicate slower population growth than previously projected. This is mainly due to lower migration assumptions reflecting the recent steep fall in net migration and lower fertility assumptions,” said James Robards, ONS head of household and population projections.
Starting this year, deaths will exceed births every year, marking a fundamental shift in the country’s demographic balance. According to projections, England’s population will peak at 62.1 million in 2056, Northern Ireland – 1.9 million as early as 2031, whilst Scotland – 5.6 million by 2033, and Wales will peak at 3.2 million in 2035. As a result, migration will be the sole driver of population growth in the UK over the coming decades.
“This is a catastrophic projection. Mass immigration undermines our society and low-wage immigration is bad for the economy,” Shadow Home Secretary Chris Philp said, adding: “British people feel this in lower wages, longer waiting lists for public services and housing shortages. Labour have opened the door without any plan to deal with the consequences, and the ONS shows this will continue to impact us into the 2030s. These 2.2 million will mostly arrive on legal visas that Parliament could stop.”
Britain’s age profile will also change significantly, with the number of pensioners rising from 12.4 million to 14.2 million by 2034, accounting for one-fifth of the total population. When the population reaches its peak in 2054 pensioners are likely to make up 22% of the total. In the meantime, the proportion of children will also fall significantly, with those aged under 16 currently accounting for 18.2% of the population, or 12.6 million. By 2034, this will fall to 11 million, or 15.5%, and by 2054 it will fall further to 14.5%.
Mike Curry, Vice President of Personal Finance at PensionBee, said, “The UK’s demographic dividend is turning into a deepening demographic drag. For the pension system, this means fewer future workers supporting more retirees.”
In the year to March 2023, a staggering 1,469,000 migrants moved to the UK. The number of arrivals fell to 1,299,000 in the year to June 2024, before declining again to 898,000 last year. Net migration, which takes into account the number of people leaving the UK, rose to a record high of 944,000 in the year ending March 2023. In 2022, it fell to 764,000, before falling to 649,000 in June 2024. It fell to 204,000 in the year to September 2025, as the number of people leaving the country reached its highest level in a century.
Officials estimate that one in 30 people living in the UK arrived between 2021 and 2024. The Home Office has predicted that 1.6 million people could be granted indefinite leave to remain, entitling them to benefits, if nothing is done.
