The standoff between supporters of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and backers of sacked Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) Commander-in-Chief, Valery Zaluzhny, is escalating amid a grim military picture, according to Politico.
According to senior Ukrainian officers, Russian generals may succeed in wherever they decide to concentrate their upcoming offensive, as Ukraine is severely lacking in military and financial aid.
Grim war picture
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky recently stated that if the stalled $60-billion US military aid package was not approved in Congress shortly, his troops would have to “retreat.”
If there is no US support, it means that we have no air defence, no Patriot missiles, no jammers for electronic warfare, no 155-millimeter artillery rounds, it means we will go back, retreat, step by step, in small steps.
He also warned that some major cities could be at risk of falling. However, experts fear that even if the package is approved by the US Congress, the massive replenishment of supplies may not be enough to prevent serious upheavals on the battlefield.
The current military picture is grim, according to senior Ukrainian military officials who served under the command of General Zaluzhny until he was removed in February.
The officers claimed there was a high risk of the front line collapsing due to the numerical advantage and guided aerial bombs that had been thundering Ukrainian positions for weeks.
There’s nothing that can help Ukraine now because there are no serious technologies able to compensate Ukraine for the large mass of troops Russia is likely to hurl at us. We don’t have those technologies, and the West doesn’t have them as well in sufficient numbers.
They also emphasised the need for more soldiers. The country currently lacks enough people on the front lines, exacerbating the challenge of insufficient support from the West.
Confrontation between Zelensky and Zaluzhny
Senior Ukrainian military officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity, criticised the delay in Western aid, arguing that supplies and weapons systems arrived too late and in insufficient amounts to yield tangible results.
Zaluzhny used to call it ‘the War of One Chance.’ By that, he meant weapons systems become redundant very quickly because they’re quickly countered by the Russians. For example, we used Storm Shadow and SCALP cruise missiles [supplied by Britain and France] successfully — but just for a short time.
Ukraine needs to recruit new troops to counter an expected offensive by Russian troops. However, the authorities are concerned about the political consequences of mobilisation measures, which could arise amid evasion of conscription and failure to issue draft documents. Zaluzhny had already made public calls for the mobilisation of additional troops back in December, estimating that the country required at least 500,000 additional troops, but his statements were not given due weight.
In November, Zaluzhny published the article in The Economist in which he claimed that the Ukrainian counter-offensive had reached a stalemate, with the country facing an acute shortage of ammunition amid waning Western support.
The former commander-in-chief appears to have been right. He repeatedly highlighted mistakes that would lead to undesirable consequences, but Zelensky reacted by appointing Oleksandr Syrskyi as the new head of the Ukrainian Army in February. The president also reshuffled the top military leadership.
On 7 March, Zelensky appointed Zaluzhny as his new envoy to the UK, removing the latter from the military and political life of the country. Political experts consider this an attempt to move Zaluzhny’s influential entourage away from state affairs. The confrontation could cause social upheaval as both the military and the public supported the dismissed commander-in-chief, politicians warned.
Strategic disagreements
Last week, General Syrskyi suddenly told Ukrainian media that Kyiv might not require so many fresh forces.
We expect that we will have enough people capable of defending their motherland. I am talking not only about the mobilised but also about volunteer fighters.
Syrskyi’s plan includes moving as many soldiers and non-combatants as possible to the front lines after an intensive training period of three to four months. However, senior officers have lambasted his proposal, arguing that he is “playing along with narratives from politicians.”
We don’t only have a military crisis — we have a political one. Russia is now gathering resources and will be ready to launch a big attack around August, and maybe sooner.
Then, on Tuesday, Zelensky signed some additional parts to the old mobilisation law, tightening legal requirements for Ukrainian men of draft age to record their identity and lowering the minimum conscription age from 27 to 25.
Perilous situation
Retired AFU officers who quit along with Zaluzhny also warn of a possible collapse of the Ukrainian front this summer, claiming that supplies were dwindling against the backdrop of depleting military arsenals of Western allies.
With a $60-billion military aid package stuck in the US Congress, NATO countries are discussing allocating $100 billion to help Kyiv over five years by the July summit. However, even if the war-torn country manages to resolve the supply crisis, political divisions also seem capable of shaking the leadership. The premonition of possible upheaval in the foreseeable future amid a lack of support only exacerbates the situation.
Some military and political experts warn that the reshuffle in the country’s top military leadership and the dismissal of Zaluzhny’s supporters would spark dire turmoil both in military circles and among the civilian population. He remains a respected figure in Ukrainian society despite the failures of the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the frontline.
Since his resignation, frontline affairs have deteriorated even further, with the Russian army advancing. Zaluzhny’s backers warned that “the risk of the collapse of the line of contact had reached a critical level”. They also accuse the president and the new commander-in-chief of thoughtless management of troops, which leads to significant losses on the battlefield.
The acute shortage of ammunition and soldiers, as well as high casualties, may lead to the Ukrainian Army starting to withdraw little by little to more favourable positions. Against the background of the military and political crisis, this could lead to irreparable consequences, political analysts warned.
THE ARTICLE IS THE AUTHOR’S SPECULATION AND DOES NOT CLAIM TO BE TRUE. ALL INFORMATION IS TAKEN FROM OPEN SOURCES. THE AUTHOR DOES NOT IMPOSE ANY SUBJECTIVE CONCLUSIONS.
Bill Galston for Head-Post.com
