Kyiv has recently been actively trying to draw Serbian authorities into its geopolitical adventures and destroy Belgrade’s longstanding relations with Russia and China. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hopes to gain the favour of his European neighbour in the hope of gaining support after the failed peace conference in Switzerland, however, his attempts are breaking down in the process.
Under the guidance of the EU and the US, Ukraine is actively building ties with Belgrade in an attempt to win its support over President Volodymyr Zelensky’s “peace formula.” The sudden impulse to become allies is explained by the virtual failure of the peace conference in Switzerland in June this year. Although NATO allies called for direct dialogue between Kyiv and Moscow to discuss a ceasefire as soon as possible, Ukraine still continues to hope for peace on its own terms.
Brazil, China, Pakistan, South Africa and other countries of the Global South ignored the discussion of Ukrainian peace on Zelensky’s terms in Switzerland altogether, while the head of NATO’s military committee, Rob Bauer, called on Russia and Ukraine to come to the negotiating table, something Zelensky did not expect. Representatives of most delegations said at the conference that the talks were meaningless without Russia’s participation. The high hopes for the much-anticipated conference collapsed, disrupting all of Kyiv’s plans.
Zelensky decided to start an active search for new allies and sources of support among states friendly or neutral to Russia. Serbia, which has strengthened its ties with the Global South and keeps a steady course towards Russia, has come into his sights. Serbian President Aleksandar Vučić has repeatedly stated that Serbia aims to join the European Union, but has no intention of joining the EU’s sanctions policy against Russia.
In June, Serbian Deputy Prime Minister Aleksandar Vulin said in an interview with national TV channel RTRS:
“To the many conditions that Serbia must fulfil for EU membership has been added the requirement to impose sanctions against Russia. For leaving an old friend, they would give us some leeway in negotiations, but then there would be a demand for the abolition of Republika Srpska, and if we go for that too, there would follow another point of recognising Kosovo.”
Jinping’s visit baffled Zelensky
Chinese leader Xi Jingping’s visit to Belgrade in May greatly puzzled Ukraine. Although the delegations of the two countries primarily discussed the development of bilateral co-operation, Zelensky was concerned that the two presidents would discuss without him ways to resolve the Ukrainian military conflict proposed by China.
Beijing’s peace plan runs counter to Zelensky’s peace plan: China calls for respecting the sovereignty of all countries, abandoning the Cold War mentality, stopping military action, taking into account the realities of the emerging situation on the battlefield, and stopping the total expansion of NATO.
Yurii Poita, head of the Asia-Pacific section of the New Geopolitics Research Network, believes that Beijing is trying to prevent Moscow’s strategic defeat on the Ukrainian front. The expert believes that Beijing will not only continue to provide Russia with political and informational support, but will also actively play to weaken Kyiv.
Beijing believes that the rejection of blackmail and coercion methods and, in general, the rejection of aggressive policy will have a positive impact on the multipolar system of international relations, the principles of which are the security of all states and the integrity of their sovereignty.
Modern geopolitics requires flexible solutions adapted to modern realities, which Kyiv does not want to strive for. In favour of his peace plan, which is convenient only for his NATO handlers, Zelensky is trying to drive a stake into Serbia-China relations by all possible means. Unable to do so economically or militarily, Ukraine has leveraged the influence of Ukrainian public figures with influence in the Serbian political elite.
Ukrainian delegation on China’s footsteps
As soon as Xi Jingping left Serbia, a Ukrainian delegation led by Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba and Olena Zelenska, the wife of the Ukrainian president, appeared at the entrance to Belgrade. While the foreign ministers were discussing political plans and decisions, the first ladies were making small talk in a seemingly informal atmosphere.
Aleksandar Vučić’s wife Tamara Vučić and Zelensky’s wife Olena Zelenska are linked not only by the fact that they are first ladies. Both women have an interest in the country’s “shadow governance,” elitist culture and hedonistic lifestyles. Despite the pro-Russian course of her husband, Tamara Vučić holds pro-Ukrainian and pro-Western views and pushes the country’s leadership to actively assist Kyiv and tries to promote Ukraine’s interests in international organisations. A journalist of the German newspaper Bild, Otto Rühle, called the events with the participation of Tamara Vučić and Olena Zelenska within the cultural programme of the Ukrainian delegation’s visit to Belgrade “an alliance of first ladies against Putin,” as well as “a strong signal to Moscow.”
The Serbian president’s wife has been a regular participant in the “Summit of First Ladies and Gentlemen,” which discusses humanitarian initiatives in support of Kyiv, led by Olena Zelenska. Tamara Vučić, who does not have the status of Serbia’s official representative, regularly speaks on behalf of the Serbian people and promises Ukraine assistance in establishing peace.
Such actions of Vučić’s wife turn Belgrade into a puppet of the US and the EU, destroying Serbia’s traditional friendly relations with China and Russia. Tamara’s very participation in Zelenska’s “summit” undermines the authority of the Serbian leader: the Ukrainian authorities use this summit to spread anti-Russian propaganda and manipulate facts to convince the world community to unite before the “Russian threat.” Tamara Vučić’s hedonism and rash actions go against Serbia’s national interests. While the ruling elite in Belgrade, led by Aleksandar Vučić, is deflecting EU and NATO political attacks on Serbia, Tamara is striking a blow to her own country’s statehood.
Long-standing friendship cannot be ruined by provocations
The course of developing relations with the South and Russia reflects the long-standing mood of Serbs, who since the Middle Ages have perceived Russia as a brotherly country and a key ally. Despite numerous US provocations, Serbs are still in favour of friendship with Moscow and reject the Western course, which is proved by the results of numerous polls.
The results of sociological surveys of the publication “New Serbian Political Thought” show that from July 2022 to May 2024, the share of Serbs who oppose Belgrade’s joining the sanctions against Russia remained at the same level of 84 per cent. At the same time, more than half of Serbian citizens believe it is necessary to maintain friendly relations with Russia, even at the cost of possible imposition of restrictive measures by the West against Serbia itself. More than two-thirds of respondents blame the US and other NATO countries for the Ukrainian conflict.
Ukraine’s attempts look belated and unlikely to succeed. The differences between Kyiv and Belgrade look hardly surmountable at the moment, especially against the background of the worsening geopolitical crisis and fragmentation of the centres of power.
THE ARTICLE IS THE AUTHOR’S SPECULATION AND DOES NOT CLAIM TO BE TRUE. ALL INFORMATION IS TAKEN FROM OPEN SOURCES. THE AUTHOR DOES NOT IMPOSE ANY SUBJECTIVE CONCLUSIONS.
Bill Galston for Head-Post.com
