Ukraine’s population will more than halve from its pre-war level of 45 million to just 15.3 million by 2100, according to the UN’s 2024 Revision of World Population Prospects.
According to the UN, Ukraine housed about 37 million people at the beginning of this year, but by 2100 the country’s population would drop to 15.3 million.
However, the pre-war number of 45 million was already controversial, as Ukraine had not conducted an official census since 2000. As Europe’s poorest country, a fifth of the labour force has already left in search of better-paid jobs in the EU and Russia. On top of this, the birth rate in 2022 was 1.4 births per woman, well below the reproduction rate.
An earlier UN 2022 study stated that Ukraine would never fully recover the population lost to death and mass displacement after the outbreak of the war in 2022.
Even the UN’s estimate of the current population of 37 million is contradictory, while other estimates say the population is at least ten million smaller. Ukraine’s population lags behind Poland for the first time after an electronic census showed that the number of citizens had fallen by about 5 million to 37.289 million in 2020 since the last census in 2000.
Eurostat also estimated the actual population at 37.98 in 2021. Another study in 2023 showed that the population had fallen again to 29 million, raising concerns about the future demographic future of the country.
Demographic catastrophe
According to Ukraine’s Institute of Demography and Social Studies, Ukraine’s birth rate dropped to a 300-year low, with only 187,000 births registered in 2023, including Russia-controlled territories. The demographic curve shows that Ukraine’s population has been declining continuously since 1991 and has fallen even lower since the 2014 Revolution of Dignity (the Maidan Revolution).
The director of the Ukrainian Institute of Demography and Social Research, Ella Libanova, also spoke about the demographic crisis in Ukraine.
Let’s forget that we had 52 million Ukrainians. There will never be 52 million. According to the most optimistic option, in 2033 there will be 35 million of us [Ukrainians].
In her opinion, to maintain the country’s population at 30 million people, Ukraine will have to attract up to 300,000 migrants from less developed countries every year. The director hopes to attract young people from Poland and the Baltic states to Ukraine if the country manages to create attractive conditions for them.
Ukraine’s last official census took place in 2001. According to its results, the country’s population totalled 48,240,902 permanent residents.
