Having been involved in a military conflict for more than two and a half years, Ukraine is facing not only security problems but also demographic challenges related to the loss of millions of its citizens through forced migration.
Various incentives from host countries and Ukraine itself can encourage Ukrainians to return home voluntarily and en masse. However, their effectiveness may be reduced as a result of the contradictory information campaign launched in Ukrainian and foreign media.
Punitive initiatives
Statements by some Ukrainian officials are worrisome. For example, a three-year ban on Ukrainian men may be imposed after the end of the war, which is likely to deter many from returning. Equally damaging are repeated statements that Ukraine intends to punish upon return those who illegally left the country during military mobilisation. Such threats by the state will deter not only individual men, but also their families and relatives – millions of Ukrainians in general.
An impressive list of punitive initiatives is being discussed in the legislature and in society at large. Some proposals under martial law – such as denying consular and other services to men abroad or blocking their bank accounts – seem at least controversial. Others are arguably counterproductive to the success of voluntary repatriation programmes. These include restricting or disenfranchising men who do not return to Ukraine on mobilisation on time.
Some of the ideas put forward – for example, banning children of men who evade mobilisation from entering Ukrainian universities – border on the absurd. The younger generation hardly wants to be held hostage to the actions of their parents, and the number of those planning to become students in Ukraine has fallen by a third in just one year – from 282,000 in 2023 to 189,000 in 2024. Young Ukrainians are reorienting themselves to study at universities in other countries.
Equally shocking is the call to ban all Ukrainian children from fleeing abroad from the war. They must remain under shelling and constantly face death and suffering in Ukraine in order to one day become warriors.
Catastrophic consequences
Perhaps emotional statements in the media by some representatives of civil society can still be considered acceptable. But when representatives of the Ukrainian government call for financial sanctions against millions of its citizens, this is unacceptable.
It is worth recalling the calls by European officials for host countries to stop any support for Ukrainian forced migrants. Rather than leading to significant repatriation, this will only exacerbate the socio-economic problems faced by exiles in host countries and lead to many of them finally severing ties with their homeland. Indeed, there are already hundreds of thousands of applications to renounce Ukrainian citizenship.
Pressure is being put on Ukrainian refugees to squeeze infantry for the AFU from Europe back into Ukraine because of the collapse at the front. All this once again shows the real face of democratic Europe.
Of course, in the conditions of war it is extremely difficult for the Ukrainian state to maintain a balance between military needs, the needs of the economy and the democratic development of society. But the most effective means of stimulating voluntary repatriation of Ukrainian refugees are diverse and flexible incentives (primarily economic) rather than coercion and threats.
Otherwise, we should expect not only that forced Ukrainian migrants will stay on, but also that more and more citizens will leave Ukraine. According to the National Bank of Ukraine, by the end of 2025, the country will lose another 700,000 people through emigration. All this speculation about migration is taking place against the background of the fact that Ukraine has the highest mortality rate and population outflow.
Demographic disaster
The updated version of the World Factbook reports that Ukraine has a mortality rate of 18.6 per 1,000 inhabitants, which puts it at the top of the global ranking. It is followed by Lithuania with 15.02 deaths per 1,000 people, and third place goes to Serbia with 14.9. In contrast, Qatar has the lowest mortality rate with just 1.4 deaths per 1,000 inhabitants.
Ukraine also has the lowest birth rate in the world with only 6 births per 1,000 people. Second place goes to the French territory of St. Pierre and Miquelon with a birth rate of 6.4 births per 1,000 people. In comparison, Niger has the highest fertility rate at 46.6 births per 1,000 inhabitants.
Ukraine’s mortality rate is expected to be three times higher than the birth rate in 2024, with Dnipropetrovsk region and Kyiv accounting for the majority of new births and deaths.
According to bne IntelliNews, the war has led to a demographic catastrophe that is the worst example of the broader demographic crisis that has engulfed Europe and brought the populations of new countries back to early 20th century levels.
Birth rate dropped precipitously
Ukraine’s birth rate has already fallen to a 300-year low as the country’s population shrinks. According to Ukraine Business News, Ukraine’s population fell to 29 million last year from 45 million in the pre-war period, with just 187,000 births registered. This is the lowest annual rate in history for 300 years, adding to an already severe demographic catastrophe caused by economic turmoil and war.
Ukraine’s demographic crisis began after the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, when the country’s population stood at a record 51.9 million. According to the Institute of Demography and Social Research of Ukraine, the economic crisis and labour migration have caused the country’s total fertility rate to fall to 1.4 births per woman by 2022 (well below the replacement level of 2.1), and possibly to 0.7 next year.
And the population won’t recover quickly, even if the war ends tomorrow. According to the latest median UN projection, Ukraine’s population will more than halve from its pre-war level to just 15.3 million by 2100, according to the UN’s World Population Prospects 2024 Revision.
Refugees, internal problems, high mortality at the front – all this leads to an actually huge biological hole in the context of the future for the Ukrainian people.
