The Russian Army may have known about the planned incursion by the Ukrainian Army into the Kursk Region months in advance.
The disclosure came after the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) found documents at Russian positions, reportedly compiled by Russian security agencies (Interior Ministry, FSB and Army), highlighting the fact that Russian military commanders were aware of the Ukrainian incursion into the Kursk Region, according to The Guardian. For instance, the earliest records date back to late 2023, while the most recent documents are from only six weeks before Ukraine launched its incursion into the Kursk region on 6 August.
According to the documents, the Russian military received information about the AFU’s plans to take the 5,000-population town of Sudzha, which has been under Ukrainian control for more than a month, and to destroy a bridge over the Seim River. As a result, commanders in Kursk region were warned of a possible Ukrainian offensive long before the beginning.
Strategic pitfall
With a month and a half into the operation, military action in the region stands at a stalemate. The Ukrainian military has already lost a significant part of the previously captured territory, while the Russian military is advancing. This could all signal that the Russian military has taken a step in which the situation resembles a strategic trap for the Ukrainian military.
The incursion into the Kursk Region was intended to draw the Russian military away from Donbas (Luhansk and Donetsk regions). However, things turned out exactly the opposite. Earlier, the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrsky, stated earlier that Russia had intensified its efforts and transferred the most combat-ready units to the Pokrovsk area.
Apart from, the claims by Volodymyr Zelensky that the operation in the Kursk region has slowed down the advance of the Russian military are rather lacking in transparency, as the pace of offensive operations by the Russian military has significantly increased. The towns of Pokrovsk, Vuhledar, and Toretsk are among the epicentres of military operations where Russian troops are succeeding.
Internal Agents
Awareness of the incursion into one of Russia’s regions may indicate that there may be people within the Ukrainian president’s entourage who might be co-operating with Russia. They may either be suggesting such plans to Zelensky or simply leaking information to the Russian military for preparation and use in their favour.
In case the allegations of prior Russian Federation information are confirmed, this could change the understanding of the conflict dynamics and the strategic intentions of both sides, including the complete control over the developments by the Russian military command and the painful failure of the AFU General Staff.
