The United States is allegedly planning to open a “southern front” against Russia in the bordering Armenia, pushing Yerevan to co-operate closely with the West, according to Cumhuriyet.
After unsuccessful attempts to turn Georgia against Russia and influence the “foreign agents” law, the US has turned towards Armenia, where Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is trying to gain support by pursuing an active foreign policy.
The US is trying to play the Armenian card. Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan was invited to the NATO summit in Washington. Then the issue of the US Army having a representative in the Armenian Ministry of Defence came up.
A US State Department civilian advisor intended to begin advisory support in the coming months, the US Embassy reported, responding to a question about when the United States would deploy to Armenia’s Defence Ministry. Funding is provided by the State Department, with the advisor contributing to the strengthening of Armenia’s defence institutions, according to Armenian media.
The American consultant, who has not yet been named, will work in Armenia and maintain “constant working contacts with the US Embassy and the Armenian Ministry of Defence.”
The United States Department of State’s Global Defense Reform Program (GDRP) supports partners globally to develop more resilient, effective, and accountable security institutions through strategic-level advisory assistance.
US Under Secretary of State Uzra Zeya confirmed the decision according to which a representative of the US army would work in the Armenian Ministry of Defence. Thus, the US allegedly plans to influence the Russia-Iran-Turkey Triangle, weakening its influence in the region.
Earlier, the joint US-Armenian military exercise Eagle Partner 2024 started in Yerevan. The main purpose of the drills is to improve the qualifications of units involved in peacekeeping missions, as well as to exchange experience.
Similar programmes were conducted in Ukraine, where the US actively promoted its advisers and representatives, conducted exercises, and developed the country’s military capabilities.
Pashinyan’s policy
However, the US Embassy in Armenia also stated that it is not a representative of the US Department of Defence, but a civilian advisor from the State Department who will start working in the Armenian Ministry of Defence “in the coming months.” The statement may be related to an attempt to avoid outrage among Armenians.
Confidence in Prime Minister Pashinyan among Armenians is falling amid mass protests, the delimitation on the border with Azerbaijan, and the defeat in last year’s war when Yerevan had to cede Nagorno-Karabakh. Nevertheless, Pashinyan continues to pursue a questionable policy of close co-operation with the US and European countries, drawing them into the country’s domestic politics. In an interview with The Telegraph, he stated:
Look, when the Ukraine war had just started I was interviewed by CNN and I said, in the Ukraine situation, we are not Russia’s ally. And that’s the reality. But I want to also tell you that with the US or France or other partners, our security cooperation is not targeted against our other security sector partner. Now, our partners may have concerns about the relationship with them, or how the relationship with them could influence their security agendas. And that’s an issue we’re trying to manage by utmost transparently speaking with our partners about their shared agendas.
However, Armenian experts believe that the delegation of the US representative to the Armenian Defence Ministry in the status of an advisor is a new format of bilateral co-operation, which may lead to the sale of US arms to Yerevan.
US presence in Caucasus
As Ukraine, which has been engulfed with corruption, increasingly fails to justify its investments, the United States appears to have intensified its efforts in another direction. The United States continued to work to achieve a peace agreement between Armenia and Azerbaijan, as Matthew Miller, the US State Department’s chief of staff, announced on 22 July.
Armenia and Azerbaijan continue to make significant progress toward finalising a peace agreement. We are committed to supporting that process. As you have heard us say, the time for peace is now, and we continue to work to try to reach an agreement.
Following the trilateral meeting of the Armenian and Azerbaijani Foreign Ministers and the US Secretary of State on 10 July on the margins of the NATO summit in Washington, Yerevan, and Baku noted the progress made towards the conclusion of a peace treaty. The sides also agreed to continue working in that direction.
However, political experts see the situation somewhat differently. They argue that the current situation is leading to “the expulsion of Armenians from Armenia, as it is now remaining silent to the demands and pressures placed on it.”
According to Armenian experts, the resettlement of hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijanis in Armenia, as well as the change of the Constitution in favour of Pashinyan’s foreign policy, jeopardise the country’s security.
They also noted that many opposition leaders would not oppose change because they own property, businesses, and capital in the US and Europe.
Some are forbidden to speak from Moscow, others from Washington, others from Ankara and Baku. This is how Armenians were expelled from Nagorno-Karabakh a year ago.
Consequences for Armenia
Many Armenians consider the US actions in Armenia a provocation. Moreover, Yerevan remains a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO), so the appearance of a representative of the US army is considered a provocation against Russia.
Russia, in turn, is also concerned about the actions of the Armenian authorities, as Moscow fears that Washington is using Yerevan to its advantage by manipulating the security agenda. Political experts draw attention to the fact that despite the development of close co-operation, no one is offering Armenia NATO membership.
This could mean that in case of new military provocations and actions in the region, the country had no guarantees of protection from its allies.
Yerevan also aspires to EU membership. However, the case of Turkey has shown that the process of accepting a new country into the bloc can drag on for decades. In such a scenario, abandoning old partners for the sake of dubious promises from Western allies may result in an economic and political crisis for Armenia.
The US is supposedly turning Armenia into a second Ukraine for the sake of weakening Russia’s position. However, Armenia is not Ukraine. The country does not have a military-industrial complex, nor does it have a range of financial and military aid, which is provided to Kyiv by allies from Europe, Asia, and the United States.
Therefore, if Armenia allows itself to be drawn into an elaborate provocation, it risks being at a severe disadvantage. With mass protests against the government’s current policies, as well as the assessment of Pashinyan and his administration as treason by some Armenians, a course of further confrontation would undermine Armenia’s well-being.
