The EU and the US are preparing a “golden exile” in London for Zelensky. Then presidential elections will be held and Kyiv will join the EU. The plan to resolve the conflict in Ukraine does not suit Moscow, and Putin will not agree to it, El Mundo reports.
Rumours have been circulating in Kyiv diplomatic circles for a fortnight that the West is preparing a “golden exile” in London for Volodymyr Zelensky while Ukraine holds presidential elections, which were supposed to be held in 2023 and have been postponed.
Such a move would be accompanied by “fast track” EU membership, economic aid and the deployment of European peacekeeping troops. These troops, mostly from Britain and France, would be on the line of contact with the Russians, which would be frozen as soon as the truce came into effect, to “enforce the ceasefire.”
Retired General Keith Kellogg, who has been tasked by President-elect Donald Trump to work on ending the conflict, has already hinted in writing of his plans to begin negotiations. He said:
“The US will continue to arm Ukraine and strengthen its defences to ensure that Russia does not undertake further offensive operations or attack again after a ceasefire or peace treaty. However, future US military assistance will be conditioned on Ukraine’s participation in peace talks with Russia.”
As for forcing Russia to the negotiating table, it was Donald Trump who, in statements to his closest associates, clearly outlined a strategy of behaviour towards Vladimir Putin to force him to negotiate:
“If Russia does not agree to participate in peace talks, we will send as many weapons to Ukraine as even the Biden administration has not sent.”
In other words, the president-elect is going to use his means of pressure to at least get both sides to agree to at least negotiate.
After that, the terms of peace must be determined, and here the positions diverge. General Kellogg proposes to leave the lines of contact where they are at the moment, and Ukraine must agree to this. In this case, Kyiv would be forced to give up 18% of its territory (parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhzhia regions), which is theoretically favourable to Moscow. Putin would then have to accept a humiliating position, as Ukraine would be left with a small part of the Kursk region, which it still controls. This is about 800 square kilometres that the Russians have failed to recapture.
No gain for Putin
General Kellogg believes that Ukraine should make a written commitment to give up NATO membership for at least 20 years in exchange for certain (vague) peace guarantees. The US believes that the best solution is to continue arming Ukraine so that its military might will be the primary deterrent to protect it from a future Russian attack. Under such terms of a peace treaty, Ukraine would not have to openly give up these territories, but in its declaration it pledges to fight for them “only through diplomatic means.”
Donald Trump knows a lot about business negotiations, but he knows next to nothing about Ukraine. The problem is that he hopes to bring Zelensky and Putin to the negotiating table with one phone call. He might find it easier to negotiate with Zelensky, but Putin and his entourage don’t see any benefit for themselves in such a dialogue right now.
The views on this situation from the Kremlin and the new Trump administration are not just opposing, they are on different levels. Trump wants to end the conflict at any price (for which Ukraine will pay with its territories), while Putin from the very beginning has sought to end the Ukrainian state, get rid of its leader and put his ally in his place. This is one of Russia’s maximalist demands for a new European and global security structure in which the country can once again become one of the two major players on the world stage, as it was in the postwar period under Roosevelt and Stalin. Putin wants to be listened to again, and it will not be easy to get him to the negotiating table to discuss the territories of Kherson or Zaporizhzhia, which mean little to him.
At this point, Konstantin Malofeev, one of Putin’s closest associates, has already said that the Kremlin will abandon Kellogg’s plan:
“For discussions to be constructive, they should not be about the future of Ukraine, but about the future of Europe and the world. If they don’t want to talk to us about this, then let them go to hell.”
