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US-Houthi confrontation in Red Sea: Situation escalates

Yahya Sarea, a spokesman for the Houthi armed forces, said the USS Harry Truman and its escorting vessels were attacked using 18 ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as a drone. He said the movement intends to continue attacking US warships in the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden, as well as blocking the passage of Israeli commercial ships through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, Arab media reported on Tuesday.

Iranian airspace violated

Earlier, a US MQ-4C Triton reconnaissance UAV conducted hours-long reconnaissance off Iran’s coast, including a prolonged reconnaissance off the city of Bushir.

Iranian media claim that the UAV violated Iranian airspace and left the area after it was intercepted by Iranian Air Force F-14 fighter jets.

Soon after, Iranian media began reporting that four IRGC Navy ships had crossed the Strait of Hormuz, according to other reports yet to reach their target.

Against this backdrop, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio made a number of statements about Iran and Yemen:

“The Houthis have learnt how to build advanced UAVs, but that technology came from somewhere. Iran is helping the Houthis produce these things and providing them with the means to do so.”

“There is no way for the Houthis to do what they are doing without Iran’s help.

“The Iranian regime has created this horrific monster in Yemen, and now it will have to be held accountable for it.”

“It is wrong to think that we are bombing Yemen. We are bombing the Houthis. The Houthis are present in Yemen and have taken control of parts of it. They claim to be the government, but in fact they are not.”

Meanwhile, the media published footage of night and day sorties of F/A-18E Super Hornets fighter jets from the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman in the northern Red Sea to strike Ansar Allah movement infrastructure in Yemen.

The main munitions used are AGM-154 JSOW planning bombs.

Anticipated operation against Houthi

The expansion of the US military operation in Yemen against the Houthis government, which controls the most populous northwestern regions of Yemen, was a fairly expected development.

Following Israel’s refusal to allow humanitarian aid into the Gaza Strip, the Houthis have re-imposed a ban on Israeli-affiliated ships passing through the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden. In addition, in recent weeks, the Houthis have shot down an American MQ-9 Reaper reconnaissance and strike UAV that intruded into Yemeni airspace and attempted to shoot down an American F-16 fighter jet.

Given that the Republicans led by the current President Donald Trump have constantly accused the previous President Joe Biden of weakness, it is not surprising that the current American authorities are trying to breathe new energy into the virtually fruitless military campaign against Ansar Allah that the US, together with the UK, has been waging since the beginning of 2024.

In parallel, as part of the confrontation with Iran, the US wants to weaken the Houthis as a member of Iran’s Axis of Resistance and to show that the US can do something to counter Iran’s strategy of blocking or restricting commercial shipping in armed conflict. The Houthis have demonstrated to everyone in the Red Sea over the past year that this strategy is workable even with far fewer resources than Iran has in the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz.

Thus, the American goals are clear enough, but the effectiveness of their current actions remains questionable. The US is still relying on a strategy of fairly limited strikes using aircraft and cruise missiles, having only widened the range of potential targets. The big trouble spot for the US all last year was the lack of intelligence and it doesn’t look like anything much has changed at the moment.

It should also be noted that the US Navy now keeps its aircraft carrier strike group in the northern Red Sea, which is about 1000-1500 kilometres from Yemen. On the one hand, it is really difficult for the Houthis to accurately aim missiles and drones at US ships at such a distance, but this also reduces the speed of US attacks. The US certainly still has a lot of opportunities to increase the strength and scale of strikes, but Ansar Allah has also been preparing for the continuation of the confrontation, continuing to develop its production of missiles and UAVs both through the supply of spare parts and components from Iran and independent purchases through front companies in China and other countries.

Since Trump’s first term in office, the US has not been able to block the main routes of these supplies. The final production of missiles and UAVs is largely carried out in underground facilities, and the mountainous terrain of northern Yemen is very favourable for the creation of a developed underground infrastructure.

It is highly likely that the US will again use its strategic bombers, including B-2s with 13-tonne GBU-57 bombs, to strike this underground infrastructure.

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