The war in Ukraine would develop in Russia’s favour if the United States failed to provide additional military assistance promptly, senior US intelligence officials warned.
Monday’s warning came nearly a month after the US Senate voted in favour of a separate $60-billion foreign aid package for Kyiv. However, House lawmakers refused to bring the bill to a vote, and other Western countries struggled to provide Ukraine with enough arms and ammunition.
Director of National Intelligence Avril Haines told members of the Senate Intelligence Committee that the $60-billion aid package was “absolutely critical to Ukraine’s defence right now.”
“Ukraine’s retreat from Avdiivka and their struggle to stave off further territorial losses in the past few weeks have exposed the erosion of Ukraine’s military capabilities with the declining availability of external military aid.”
In addition to Haines, CIA spokesman William Burns, echoing previous assessments of the Ukrainian army’s performance, stated:
The Ukrainians are not running out of courage and tenacity. They’re running out of ammunition. And we’re running out of time to help them.
Besides concerns that the delayed aid to Ukraine is playing into Russian President Vladimir Putin’s hands, US intelligence officials also see signs that Putin is continuing to move forward with plans to modernise and reinforce Russia’s nuclear weapons arsenal, which is already considered the largest and most diverse in the world.
“We remain concerned that Moscow will put at risk long-standing global norms against the use of asymmetric or strategically destabilizing weapons, including in space and in the cyber domain.”
Some lawmakers endorsed the concern, urging colleagues to pass legislation to ensure Ukraine received needed military supplies, with Senate Intelligence Committee Chairman Mark Warner declaring:
My fear is the decision thus far by the House of Representatives not to even take up legislation that would support Ukraine in the fight […] has been one of the most short-sighted decisions on a national security issue that I can possibly imagine.
US intelligence officials also warned of global repercussions if additional aid to Ukraine was not implemented, as CIA’s Burns stated that a US withdrawal from Ukraine “not only is that going to feed doubts among our allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific, it’s going to stoke the ambitions of the Chinese leadership in contingencies ranging from Taiwan to the South China Sea.”
Such changing dynamics had “the potential to undermine, among other things, long-held nonproliferation norms,” Haines added. US intelligence officials also raised concerns about the ongoing conflict in the Gaza Strip, where Israeli forces continued to pursue Hamas militants despite United Nations warnings of a humanitarian disaster for civilians.
Burns recently travelled to the Middle East to meet with officials from Israel, Egypt and Qatar. He stated that the deal currently under consideration would include the return of some 40 Israeli hostages still held by Hamas in exchange for a six-week cease-fire that would allow the US and its allies to provide desperately needed assistance.
“I understand Israel’s need, and the president [Joe Biden] has emphasized this, to respond to the brutish attack that Israelis suffered on the 7th of October [by Hamas]. But I think we all also have to be mindful of the, you know, enormous toll that this has taken on innocent civilians in Gaza.”
Haines acknowledged that other groups linked to Iran, such as the Houthis in Yemen, became “aggressive actors,” orchestrating dozens of attacks on international shipping.
