US plans to deploy intermediate-range missiles as well as hypersonic weapons in Europe for the first time since the Cold War risk accelerating an arms race and spiral of escalation between Washington and Moscow, INews reports.
The White House announced Wednesday that non-nuclear “long-range firepower” for US forces stationed in Germany will begin deploying in 2026, which will include SM-6 and Tomahawk missile systems as well as “hypersonic weapons under development.”
The US long-range hypersonic weapon (LRHW) programme, dubbed “Dark Eagle”, involves missiles capable of speeds of up to Mach 17 and ranges of up to 3,000km. The Dark Eagle and Tomahawk systems are capable of reaching targets in Russian territory.
The US announcement followed the tearing up of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, signed by the US and Russia in 1987, which prohibited both sides from possessing, producing or testing land-based cruise and ballistic missiles with a range of 500 to 5,500 kilometres.
Former President Donald Trump withdrew from the treaty in 2019, accusing Russia of violating it. Moscow has said it is observing a “voluntary moratorium” on the deployment of missiles previously covered by the treaty, according to INews.
Russia’s Foreign Ministry said on Thursday it had started work on “countermeasures” in response to the US statement. It noted:
As we have repeatedly warned, the actions of the US and its satellites to create additional missile threats to Russia will not remain without a proper response from our side. The necessary work on preparing compensating countermeasures by Russian specialised agencies was started in advance and is being carried out on a systematic basis.
President Vladimir Putin warned on July 4:
If medium and shorter-range missiles of American manufacture appear somewhere, then we reserve the right to act in a mirror manner.
According to Pavel Podvig, a senior researcher in the Weapons of Mass Destruction Programme at the UN Institute for Disarmament Research, the move could lead Russia to deploy nuclear weapons in response. He told INews:
This will almost certainly lead to Russia declaring a formal end to its moratorium on the deployment of INF-range systems. I think we should expect that Russia will deploy its systems in response. These systems, however, will most certainly be nuclear capable, unlike the US ones. And probably nuclear-only, like the RS-26 ballistic missile. I don’t know how anyone in the US or Nato believes that this will lead to a more secure environment in Europe.
Jon Wolfstahl, director of global risk at the Federation of American Scientists, warned:
We have recreated one of the most dangerous components of the Cold War in Europe and things will only get worse from here.
Dmitry Stefanovich, a security analyst at the Russian think tank, the E.M. Primakov Institute of World Economy and International Relations, believes the Kremlin will perceive the deployment of US troops as a direct threat and respond in kind. He wrote on X:
Given the clearly strategic nature of the US and allied INF-range weapons vis-à-vis Russian targets, I believe that our guys will not bother much with matching European/Asian deployments and go straight after [the US].
The US has so far not announced plans to deploy missile systems in any European country other than Germany. According to German news magazine Der Spiegel, the agreement with Berlin came after months of top-secret negotiations.
German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius welcomed the announcement, saying the missiles would close “a very serious capability gap in Europe” – although the weapons would be under US command, not NATO, INews reports.
Tim Thies, an arms control researcher at the Institute for Peace Research and Security Policy at the University of Hamburg, said it was “striking that Germany is the only host country” but suggested there could be “strategic or geographical reasons.” He told INews:
Most of these capabilities that are to be deployed in Germany could strike targets deep in Russian territory, without being close to Russian territory. So they wouldn’t be as vulnerable as if they were deployed in Poland or the Baltic states.
The deployment of hypersonic weapons, after Russia reportedly used hypersonic Kinzhal and Zircon missiles in Ukraine, is “definitely another step in the arms race,” the researcher said. Thies also added:
As Russia has deployed hypersonic missiles, you hear arguments that there is a gap that NATO needs to close. The hypersonic arms race is in full swing already. The US is putting significant efforts into developing defence systems to intercept new hypersonic missiles that were first developed to overcome our defences.
The US military last month announced a comprehensive flight test of a hypersonic missile, which it called “a major milestone in the development of this capability.”
However, the programme has faced setbacks, with the latest report to Congress stating the following:
The Army did not meet its goal of developing the first LRHW battery – including missiles – by fiscal year 2023 due to integration issues. Based on current test and missile production plans, the Army will not field its first complete LRHW battery until fiscal year 2025.
According to Thomas Newdick, an air warfare specialist at the military publication The War Zone, the Dark Eagle programme is more complex than its Russian counterparts but has greater capabilities. He said:
These are really tricky things to develop, so it’s not really a surprise that it has run into some trouble. Dark Eagle involves a hypersonic boost-glide vehicle, which is maybe the trickiest hypersonic weapon to perfect. You have a rocket booster with an unpowered hypersonic boost-glide vehicle on top. The rocket booster propels the hypersonic vehicle to optimal speed and altitude then releases it.
Dark Eagle missiles are more advanced and have a longer range than their Russian counterparts, the author added, although little is known about the Zircon. Newdick also added:
I would not be surprised if it’s delayed further but when it does arrive, it’s a problem for Russia. So is the Typhon – a ground-based launcher for SM-6 missiles and Tomahawk cruise missiles. Having a combination of long-range weapons like this, flying different profiles, makes things that much harder for air defences.
Russia will respond to the US statement and the escalation is likely to become even more dangerous, he predicts. Newdick concluded:
I can only see this adding of new capabilities – quick-strike ballistic and hypersonic missiles – as increasing the level of risk and potential for mistakes or overreaction.
