Washington fears that recent Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian nuclear early warning systems could provoke a serious escalation of the Ukrainian conflict, while the Biden administration is discussing lifting restrictions on Ukraine’s use of US-supplied weapons for cross-border attacks, The Washington Post reports.
The US official, speaking on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, said:
The United States is concerned about Ukraine’s recent strikes against Russian ballistic missile early-warning sites.
Washington expressed its concern to Kyiv over two attempts to attack radar stations that provide conventional air defence as well as warning of Western nuclear launches. At least one strike in Armavir, in the southeastern Krasnodar region, appears to have caused some damage. The US official also added:
These sites have not been involved in supporting Russia’s war against Ukraine. But they are sensitive locations because Russia could perceive that its strategic deterrent capabilities are being targeted, which could undermine Russia’s ability to maintain nuclear deterrence against the United States.
However, a Ukrainian official with knowledge of the matter said that Russia used radar stations to monitor the Ukrainian military’s activities, particularly Kyiv’s use of aerial weapons such as drones and missiles. The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, confirmed that Ukraine’s Military Intelligence Directorate, known by the initials HUR, was responsible for the strikes.
The Ukrainian official also said the strikes were aimed at reducing Russia’s ability to track Ukrainian military activity in southern Ukraine. The drone targeting a radar station near Orsk in the Orenburg region along Kazakhstan’s northern border travelled more than 1,100 miles, making it one of the deepest strikes on Russian territory.
US discusses Ukraine’s use of weapons
US officials have said they sympathise with Ukraine’s plight – administration officials are actively debating whether to lift restrictions on the use of US-provided weapons for strikes inside Russia. But if Russian early-warning capabilities are blinded to Ukrainian attacks, even partially, it could damage strategic stability between Washington and Moscow, a US official said. He added:
Russia could think it has a diminished ability to detect early nuclear activity against it, which then could become an issue. It should be obvious to everyone that there’s no intention whatsoever [by the United States] of using nuclear weapons against Russia. But there’s certainly concern about how Russia could perceive its deterrent capabilities being targeted and early-warning systems being attacked.
Dmitri Alperovitch, security analyst and chairman of Silverado think tank, said:
The perception issue is likely fueled by an erroneous conviction that Ukraine’s targeting is directed by Washington. But that means attacks by Kyiv on Russian nuclear deterrence infrastructure has potential to trigger a perilous escalation with the West. At the end of the day, nuclear command and control and early-warning sites should be off-limits.
Some analysts puzzled about the targets. They say that while Krasnodar is close enough to Ukraine to track missiles and drones, the radar station near Orsk is aimed at the Middle East and China.
Asked why they would target a facility so far away, the Ukrainian official said Russia had “switched all its capabilities to war against Ukraine.”
Situation on the front is heating up
After Ukraine’s disappointing counter-offensive last year, Russia has regained the initiative on the battlefield in recent months, advancing in the eastern Donetsk region and recently launching a new offensive in the northeastern Kharkiv region along the border. Kyiv, meanwhile, has increasingly targeted targets deep inside Russia – something many doubt is possible without Western support and consent.
About three weeks ago, shortly after Russia launched its offensive on Kharkiv, Ukraine asked the USs to ease long-standing restrictions on the use of US-provided weapons to attack targets inside Russia. Some senior officials are in favour of such a move, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who has urged President Biden to agree to lift the restrictions. The White House is considering such a proposal, but has not taken any action yet, officials said.
At a news conference in Moldova on Wednesday, Blinken said the US “has not encouraged or supported strikes outside of Ukraine, but Ukraine, as I have said, must make its own decisions about the best way to effectively defend itself.”
Blinken added that the US has “adapted and adjusted” to changing conditions on the battlefield. According to the US official, there are no restrictions on Ukraine using US-supplied air defence assets to shoot down Russian missiles or fighter jets over Russian territory “if they pose a threat to Ukraine.”
Unrealised attack on Russia
However, US officials have expressed concerns to Ukrainian authorities before about Kyiv’s attacks on Russian territory, sometimes even intervening at the planning stage. According to a leaked classified report from the US National Security Agency, later confirmed by two senior Ukrainian military officials, before the one-year anniversary of the start of the military conflict in Ukraine, the HUR was planning attacks on Moscow.
Days before the attack, US officials asked Kyiv to scrap its plans, fearing it might provoke an aggressive response from the Kremlin; the Ukrainians complied, according to leaked US documents and the words of senior Ukrainian officials.
In a more recent example, Washington disagreed with Ukrainian drones conducting strikes on oil refineries in Russia – a request that came directly from Vice President Harris to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky at the Munich Security Conference in February, according to officials familiar with the matter. US officials believed the strikes would drive up global energy prices and trigger a more aggressive Russian response inside Ukraine.
Amid growing concerns about Russia’s military successes, Washington is facing pressure from NATO and several key European allies to allow Ukraine to use the full power and range of US-provided weapons.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, the alliance’s top political official, said during a visit to Bulgaria on Monday:
If you cannot attack the Russian forces on the other side of the front line because they are on the other side of the border, then of course you really reduce the ability of the Ukrainian forces to defend themselves.”
Meanwhile, Poland does not restrict the use of weapons supplied to Ukraine for strikes on Russian territory, Polish Deputy Defence Minister Cezary Tomczyk said.
