The year 2024 is upon us, and the US officially run out of money for Ukraine. According to experts, while Congress is discussing what to do next, Kyiv’s military position will inevitably deteriorate, with the result that in a month or two Ukraine will most likely no longer be able to launch major attacks, according to Responsible Statecraft.
The upcoming events on Capitol Hill in the next few weeks may decisively determine the next phase of the war, when funding will be limited and the conflict will have to be frozen.
Senator Kyrsten Sinema stressed that by next week, talks could produce the outlines of an agreement that would include many Republican-backed border security measures in exchange for funding for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.
On the other hand, Mike Johnson said Republicans should only agree to a deal that includes H.R.2, which involves a tough immigration bill. This bill includes measures that are at odds with the Democrats, which creates more difficulties.
Such a strategy would obviate the need for a stand-alone vote on funding for Kyiv, which is likely to attract a significant number of negative votes from House Republicans, since again everything rests on agreement between Democrats and Republicans.
Disputes between the two major US factions could lead to an unexpected freeze in the conflict. The Biden administration will be forced to begin negotiations to freeze the war in its current course and find a compromise on key aspects of each side’s stated goals.
While the administration still has presidential drawdown authority that allows it to pull weapons from existing US stockpiles and quickly ship them to Ukraine, officials opted to relinquish that authority because Congress has not approved additional funds to resupply the equipment. Late last month, the US sent a $250 million arms package to Ukraine, which officials said was likely to be the last because of a lack of funding.
“We are confident in plan A,” the country’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba said on Wednesday, 3 January, claiming that it has no “plan B” in case it stops receiving funding from the United States.
