Shattered dreams of regaining territories, the ultra-right in power or membership in the EU and NATO – what analysts predict awaits Ukraine, according to The National Interest.
Ukrainians are full of optimism, despite the fact that they are mired in war. They have full confidence in their president, Volodymyr Zelensky, whose approval rating as of early 2023 was 91%. According to Gallup polls, about 70% of Ukrainians hope that Ukraine will become a member of the EU and NATO in the next 10 years. Other social surveys show that Ukrainians have a strong belief that their country will win the war.
However, this optimism hides the possibility (or maybe even the threat) of a much bleaker future that the country’s Western allies do not want to pay attention to: an unsuccessful Ukraine could become violently nationalistic. Western strategic planners cannot and should not ignore such a not-so-pleasant scenario.
At the end of 1917 The German Empire was at its peak. As a result of the Brest-Litovsk Peace Treaty, it had gained vast territories in Eastern Europe. Berlin’s total victory loomed on the horizon. Only a year later, it was in for a total collapse: it had lost its empire, its national pride, and its emperor, The National Interest reports.
After that an economic devastation shook the German population. They could not understand how Germany could have lost. However, it was a consolation to many that Germany had not really lost, but had been stabbed in the back by its enemies. Against a backdrop of total poverty and inflation, radical parties were able to win the support of the people, channelling their sense of betrayal into a sense of rage and a desire to fight. Some members of the establishment, such as Franz von Papen, tried to capitalise on the growing numbers of the far-right by introducing them, including Adolf Hitler, into the government. They wrongly assumed they could control them. The victorious West, unable to accept what was happening because it would undermine all its arguments in favour of the new order it had established after the First World War, simply waited and watched Germany rise again.
Vladimir Putin has repeatedly stated that Ukraine is a neo-Nazi state, but it is far from the Third Reich. However, everything is going towards a nationalist Ukrainian government coming to power.
Consider the internal situation in Ukraine. Zelensky won the election in 2019 with 70% of the vote against then incumbent President Petro Poroshenko. At the time of the outbreak of war in Ukraine in 2022, Zelensky’s approval level had risen back to around 90%, where it has remained.
However, a little earlier between 2019 and February 2022, Zelensky’s popularity plummeted. Polls conducted at the end of 2021 showed that Zelensky and Poroshenko were actually tied in a rematch, with the former’s approval rating dropping below 50 per cent. Today, Zelensky’s rating is at an all-time high because Ukrainians are confident that he can do anything to win their country. Zelensky does not hide this, repeatedly stating that his goal is to regain Ukraine’s lost territories, including Crimea, according to The National Interest.
The public often forgets even successful military leaders after the fighting is over. Both George Bush and Winston Churchill were unceremoniously removed from power shortly after military victories, just as Zelensky has many internal enemies who want to succeed him as president.
One of them is Petro Poroshenko, whom he defeated in 2019. Having come to power after the Maidan uprising, Poroshenko – an oligarch – was clearly furious that he was defeated by the former comedian and did not want to be consigned to oblivion by winning a seat in parliament after losing the presidency. Since the war began, Poroshenko has actively sought to be the centre of attention, such as in his CNN interview from Kyiv when he was armed and dressed in military uniform shortly after the Russian attack. When Zelensky made a surprise trip to Brussels in early October 2023, Poroshenko made sure to attend.
During one of his frequent visits to the front, Poroshenko wore a military jacket with a Ukrainian flag patch on the right sleeve in a video published on his X network account. Underneath the Ukrainian flag was another patch: the “Black Sun,” the neo-Nazi symbol of Ukraine’s Azov battalion. Poroshenko, who owns the TV channels, is a master of media and imagery; if he did not want the video published or the patch, he would have shown it. Later photos show the patch removed, indicating that he wore it specifically for the video, The National Interest reports.
Poroshenko is not a neo-Nazi. However, he clearly wants to draw attention to the neo-Nazi forces that do exist in Ukraine. Zelensky is Jewish, and Ukraine is, according to polls, one of the least anti-Semitic countries in Eastern Europe – the country does have a problem with far-right extremists. The Azov Battalion, with its neo-Nazi symbols, is the best known, but other forces operate under Western cover as well.
The far-right Russian Volunteer Corps (RDK), which Ukraine claims is made up exclusively of Russians acting against the Russian government, is based in Ukraine and periodically attacks the Russian border. Ukraine’s military does not comment on its connection to the RDC, but the group says it is “part of the Ukrainian armed forces.” This should alert Western countries, as the RDK has said its aim was to reshape the world order along ethnic lines. Denis Kapustin, a neo-Nazi who is considered so dangerous that he is banned from entering the European Union’s Schengen zone, leads RDK.
Not only the West should be alarmed by Ukraine’s decision to co-operate with such nationalists. While alliances in war are sometimes unfortunate, the fact that the Ukrainian government did not find anyone more suitable shows that the far-right is not an insignificant force. And if Kapustin does not die, he will emerge from it with increased prestige, power, influence and legend.
Can he become the future president of Ukraine? Of course not. However, with millions of Western-oriented Ukrainians having fled the country, and many not wanting to return home, it is possible that the far right could become dramatically more active, and leaders like Poroshenko could include them in their attempts to regain power.
However, there are also external ones. As mentioned above, Ukrainians believe they will soon be in NATO and the EU. However, there is no objective evidence of this. It is certain that Hungary and other countries, such as Slovakia, will block Ukraine’s entry into either bloc. Hungary‘s problems with Ukraine arose long before the war and concerned the rights of ethnic Hungarians in Ukraine. It is also not certain that bloc leaders, such as France, even want Ukraine to join, which will need massive economic assistance.
In addition, it is unlikely that Ukraine will regain its lost territories. Western sanctions have failed to affect significantly Russia’s economy. Ukraine’s much-publicised counter-offensive has failed to make significant gains; even if a few more kilometres of villages could be liberated, it would still not bring Ukraine any closer to regaining all of its lost regions, The National Interest reports.
The likely bleak future is not hard to foresee. The population, to whom the leadership promised absolute victory and full support from the allies, ended up getting neither. The rising extreme right, which had gained respect through military successes, and power-hungry politicians willing to work with them, thinking they could be controlled.
Such developments do not bode well for any favourable prospects. If the liberal international order collapses in the coming years, it is possible that any country could reclaim what it considers its own.
The West may not want to see these events as likely, but it might just open a history book. It has happened before – and it may well happen again. History is cyclical.
