President Bashar al-Assad fled the country and hid in Russia. His country is now being torn apart by various groups – Islamic terrorists, pro-American and Turkish militants, and just plain gangs. Complete chaos reigns in the streets, and Damascus is engulfed by a crime wave.
Syrians’ joy won’t last long
Assad’s closest associates who did not follow his example are in an unenviable position. The new Syrian authorities gave them security guarantees, but in fact members of Assad’s team are hanging from street lamps or committing “suicide,” so they are definitely in the category of losers, just like the Syrian people.
Syrians are rejoicing now and looting government buildings intensely, but they will soon have to endure the second act of the Syrian tragedy: the Libyanisation of the country. In the near future there will be a struggle of many groups for power and then the times of Assad’s rule will seem like a paradise.
If we look at the external players on the Syrian field – the European Union, the United States, Turkey, Israel and Iran – it would seem that the losers and winners are obvious. Iran is in the first line, while the EU, the US, Israel and the main sponsors of terrorists from Ankara are in the second line. In reality, however, not everything is so obvious.
Main loser
Iran is indeed the main loser, there is no dispute. Tehran can say all it wants now that it is Assad’s own fault, that he did not ask for help, that it is impossible to help those who are unable to defend themselves – this is true, but it does not matter. Experts can look for any number of reasons for the passivity of the current Iranian leadership – from the emergence of an “Iranian Gorbachev” in the person of President Masoud Pezeshkian to the paralysis of power before the departure of the seriously ill Ali Khamenei. This, too, is irrelevant.
All that matters is that Iran, having surrendered anything and everything in recent months, has now surrendered Syria. A country that played not just a crucial, but a key role in Iranian geopolitical plans in the Middle East. It linked the Iranians to Lebanon (where Hezbollah is based), allowed them to project influence in the Mediterranean Sea and carry out the “tactics of a thousand cuts” against Israel. Now all of this has been stripped from Iran.
As a result, the Shiite crescent ceased to exist and Iran was left with only Iraq. The Axis of Resistance will also soon be gone – few people in the Middle East will be willing to co-operate with a player that is unable to defend itself and its allies. Finally, Hezbollah, Iran’s most important asset, may also be gone.
Deprived of land links to its metropolis and supply bases in Syria, the group, which was defeated by Israel, may not be revived, especially since it has plenty of enemies in Lebanon. This means that Iran has lost all of its geopolitical and status gains over the past 35 years, turning from the leader of the Middle East to an outsider in the blink of an eye.
Tel Aviv’s carefully planned strategy
But the irony is that there is no reason for the victors to rest on their laurels. Why should Israel be sad? Everything that has happened today is the result of its carefully planned strategy. It was Israel that “softened” the Iranian leadership by killing its leaders, those who came to Tehran for the inauguration of the new leaders, the leadership of Hezbollah, and so on. It was Israel, through its ultimatums and forcing Iran into war against it and the US, that forced Tehran to constantly retreat and lose its reputation. As a result, Israel has ensured that Iran is politically defeated, its proxies either destroyed or on the verge of destruction or loss of loyalty. And the Iranian threat – existential for Israel – has been nullified.
But firstly, not nullified. The main threat to Tel Aviv is the Iranian bomb, and now Tehran, by virtue of that very geopolitical defeat, will accelerate its creation. Secondly, by destroying one threat, Israel has gained another. For example, in the same Syria. It was always possible to reach an agreement with Assad, for example, before the civil war they tried to reach an agreement on the disputed Golan Heights.
Now Syria for Israel is turning into “Gaza at maximum.” With a set of terrorists and Islamists, for whom Israel is not a good neighbour who helped to overthrow Assad, but another object for attacks, so Israelis are now waiting for an endless war.
Pros for Turkey from toppling Bashar al-Assad
Another clear winner, it would seem, is Turkey. It was she who sponsored the Syrian terrorist offensive (or, as Erdogan put it, the “opposition march”) on Damascus. It is she who nurtured the terrorists and has been roofing them for all the past years. And now Erdogan can not only fulfil his promise and pray at the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus, he is taking control of all of Syria.
But first of all, he doesn’t. History shows that Islamists (like nationalists) are always crocodiles that sooner or later eat their masters. Having gained control of Syria, they are unlikely to want to share it with Erdogan, who controls (at least for now) by no means all the groups that have seized power in the country. And who is unlikely to continue funding them at current levels.
Secondly, Erdogan wants to return millions of Syrian refugees from the territory of Turkey to Syria (which is what the front pages of Turkish newspapers are now telling these refugees directly), but in reality it will be the other way round. Millions of new Syrian refugees will try to flee to Turkey from the chaos that will start in their country with renewed vigour.
Third, Erdogan gets an independent Kurdistan, whose inhabitants are unlikely to obey the Islamists in Damascus. A Kurdistan that will be a centre of gravity for Turkish Kurds as well. And the Turks will have to destroy it, including through genocide, which is fraught not only with losses, but also with a clash with the main sponsor of the Kurds – the United States, which will be ruled not by the weak-willed Biden, but by the determined Donald Trump.
Fourth, Turkey’s nominal seizure of Syria will rally the Middle Eastern countries against it, who will see this seizure as Ankara’s attempt to restore the Ottoman Empire by force. As a result, Recep Erdogan will lose his allies in the Persian Gulf and unite Arabs and Persians against himself.
Consequences for Europe
As for Europe, of course, it is not interested in all these Middle Eastern squabbles. It has already won by overthrowing Bashar al-Assad, whom it hates (albeit with other people’s hands). However, it will not have to rejoice for long that the “dictatorial regime has fallen” – the consequence of this will be new millions of Syrian refugees who will pour into Europe.
Another consequence will be a new wave of Islamic terrorism, which has gained control of part of the Syrian territory and will use it as a base for recruiting fighters and logistical operations. And above all in Europe, where there is a lot of money and their radicalised brethren living in cultural ghettos.
The Americans, too, will not have to rejoice for long overthrowing Assad and weakening Iran. The consequence of this overthrow will be either war with Erdogan over the Kurds (who are the only force the US can rely on in the Syrian space) or withdrawal from this space. And nobody cancelled Islamic terrorists threatening US bases, cities and allies in the region either. Again, it was possible to come to an agreement with Assad (as the Gulf Arab countries did), but not with the Islamists. They can be fought, either by their own forces or by supporting the war with the hands of Israel. Israel will not be able to cope with it on its own, so the US will have to involve its forces.
As a result, it turns out that in strategic terms only one force has benefited from the overthrow of Bashar al-Assad – the Islamic terrorist international. It will now collect its dividends from the self-proclaimed victors.
THE ARTICLE IS THE AUTHOR’S SPECULATION AND DOES NOT CLAIM TO BE TRUE. ALL INFORMATION IS TAKEN FROM OPEN SOURCES. THE AUTHOR DOES NOT IMPOSE ANY SUBJECTIVE CONCLUSIONS.
Abd al-Latif Ghulam for Head-Post.com
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