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Why Zelensky’s victory plan doomed

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky travelled to the United States for the UN General Assembly session, where he would present to his counterpart Joe Biden a plan to defeat Russia, while Ukrainian troops are struggling to hold their positions.

The plan contains four key points: security guarantees for Ukraine from allies, continued incursion into Russia’s Kursk region, international financial aid, and authorisation to strike deep into Russia with long-range weapons.

The plan is designed first and foremost with Biden’s support. If he doesn’t want to support it, I can’t force him. If he refuses, (…) it will be regrettable.

Former Ukrainian Foreign Minister Yuriy Lutsenko said that if the Kursk incursion failed, Kyiv would put the responsibility on the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), Oleksandr Syrskyi.

Meanwhile, if Democratic presidential candidate Kamala Harris loses the November presidential election, Zelensky will have to build a relationship with Donald Trump. His running mate J.D. Vance suggested reaching peace with Russia by ceding Ukrainian territories lost during the war.

Russia’s response

Russian presidential spokesman, Dmitry Peskov, said Moscow was ready to familiarise itself with the victory plan if it appeared in official sources.

We believe that it is impossible to engage in any kind of analysis based on media reports. If some information ever appears on official sources, we will, of course, scrutinise it carefully.

However, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova was sceptical of the plan. She claimed that it was impossible to end the military conflict “without Russia and taking its interests into account.”

Grim scenario

Political experts, including Lutsenko, believe that if Russia refuses to negotiate and the trip to the US does not yield results, another plan may be needed not for victory but for possible capitulation. According to him, in case the US refuses to assist Kyiv, Zelensky will be forced to sign a peace treaty with Moscow on its terms, putting the responsibility on the allies who “provided insufficient aid.”

Lutsenko noted that due to the delay in authorising the use of long-range missiles, Russia had time to withdraw its aviation to a safe distance. Former Verkhovna Rada (Ukrainian parliament) deputy Volodymyr Oliynyk shared his opinion.

Zelensky is neither a politician nor a statesman. Otherwise, he would not forbid himself to negotiate with Russia. He is a showman, an adventurer. Such a gamble is, for example, an attempted offensive in the Kursk region and the seizure of the local nuclear power plant. But it didn’t work out.

Oliynyk pointed out that the allies would not agree to admit Ukraine to NATO amid the ongoing war. They will also not shoot down missiles over Ukrainian territories to avoid escalation and involvement in the conflict.

Other critics claim that the purpose of Zelensky’s visit to the US was an attempt to draw Washington into the war against Moscow. Possible strikes deep into Russia with long-range US weapons would allow Zelensky to put the blame on Biden or his successor, they add.

Zelensky was also accused of trying to use US military property to campaign for Vice President Kamala Harris during a visit to Pennsylvania on Monday. Critics saw the Ukrainian president’s effort to praise or condemn politicians as meddling in the US election.

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