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Will Kharkiv remain under Ukrainian control?

Ukrainian media are publishing footage of people fleeing the eastern Ukrainian city of Kharkiv amid reports of airstrikes on the energy system and the advance of Russian troops along the front line.

According to the Ukrainian authorities, Russia fired dozens of missiles and 60 drones at Ukrainian facilities on Friday. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky accused Russia of threatening to cause an environmental disaster not only in Ukraine but also in neighbouring Moldova.

Retaliatory offensive by Russian troops

The attack was the latest in a series of intensified Russian strikes in March. Last week, Russia launched over 190 missiles and 140 Shahed drones, Zelensky stated. Ukrainian authorities estimated that the attacks caused more than $11.5 billion worth of damage.

The situation is exacerbated by the activities of military formations, such as the Free Russia Legion, a Ukrainian paramilitary unit of Russian citizens opposed to the Russian authorities and the war in Ukraine, and the Russian Volunteer Corps. The formations regularly raid Russian territories, forcing the Russian side to take vigorous retaliatory actions.

Ukrainians leaving Kharkiv by highway. Source: Ukrainian media

Kharkiv is located 26 kilometres away from the Russian border, making this major city an attractive target for a retaliatory offensive by Russian forces. Ukrainian troops managed to repel the offensive in 2022, but now the defensive success remains uncertain as the country faces a severe shortage of ammunition and financial aid.

West getting fatigued with fruitless warfare

US President Joe Biden is seeking to negotiate a $60-billion aid package for Ukraine, but House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Republican, is refusing to bring the issue to a vote, fuelling divisions over aid to the war-torn country.

Western allies lost faith in Ukraine’s success as it failed to ensure the successful counter-offensive last summer and autumn, even with financial and military assistance. Moreover, there have been reports of unprecedented levels of corruption among Ukrainian officials, deteriorating the trust of supporters. In an attempt to address the situation, Zelensky conducted a series of reshuffles among top officials, but the dismissal of Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny only sparked discontent among Ukrainian soldiers.

Reacting to calls by French President Emmanuel Macron to send NATO troops to fight the war, his allies strongly denied any action that could provoke an escalation of the conflict. For instance, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz rejected a proposal to send Taurus cruise missiles to Kyiv, arguing that such a move would directly involve Germany in hostilities.

Despite Western attempts to help its Eastern European ally, Ukraine will probably not be able to cope with the new challenge, as Russian troops are steadily advancing, taking advantage of delays in providing aid to Kyiv.

The situation looks particularly tragic against the backdrop of media reports of a supposed new wave of mobilisation in Russia. In addition, in the second half of March, Putin stated that Russia would be forced to create a “sanitary zone” on its border with Ukraine to prevent attacks and shelling of Russian regions bordering it.

I am not ready now to discuss what, how and when we should attach. But I do not rule out that, bearing in mind the tragic events taking place today, we will be forced to establish a certain ‘sanitary zone’ on today’s territories at some point.

Given the columns of Ukrainians fleeing Kharkiv, Russian troops are likely to enter a virtually empty city. The fall of Kharkiv could be another major blow that would boost efforts by Western allies to push Kyiv toward peace talks.

THE ARTICLE IS THE AUTHOR’S SPECULATION AND DOES NOT CLAIM TO BE TRUE. ALL INFORMATION IS TAKEN FROM OPEN SOURCES. THE AUTHOR DOES NOT IMPOSE ANY SUBJECTIVE CONCLUSIONS.

Bill Galston for Head-Post.com

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