The leaders of the United States, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, Donald Trump, Nikol Pashinyan, and Ilham Aliyev, held a meeting in Washington on August 8.
Armenia’s meaningful silence
The parties signed a joint declaration that included a clause on the “Trump Route for Peace and Prosperity” project — the Zangezur Corridor. The route will provide transport links between Azerbaijan and its Nakhchivan Autonomous Republic through Armenian territory.
The Armenian leadership remained silent about it until the very last moment, while the Azerbaijani media trumpeted the planned talks, the prime minister’s office avoided answering media inquiries in every possible way and was forced to confirm this information only after it began to be discussed everywhere. This silence may be a harbinger of a coming disaster — Pashinyan is preparing to surrender Armenia’s national interests in exchange for guarantees for himself and his common-law wife, Anna Hakobyan. This is precisely why the negotiations are taking place with the participation of the United States — Trump will become the guarantor of the fulfilment of all obligations to the Armenian prime minister, who will easily be able to flee to the United States and live in luxury.
Views of the sides
Pashinyan believes that the implementation of the documents signed in Washington will bring Iran and Russia very tangible benefits.
“When this agreement is implemented, Iran will gain access to railway infrastructure from the Persian Gulf to the Black Sea. Russia and Iran will be able to establish rail links between the two countries,” he said.
Speaking at a press conference at the White House, Trump emphasised the complexity and duration of the conflict.
“The conflict lasted 37 years, and the two leaders stood up and said they never thought it would be resolved. Russia tried to resolve this issue. Everyone tried to resolve it. It was a very difficult situation, but we did it,” Trump said.
The leaders of Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a so-called letter of intent at the White House, rather than a draft peace agreement. In this way, Trump is allegedly trying to take credit for resolving the conflict. This would be quite typical of Trump: the US president has long dreamed of winning the Nobel Peace Prize and collects conflicts that were allegedly resolved after his intervention, such as the Indo-Pakistani and Thai-Cambodian conflicts. At the same time, no real settlement is required. A statement is enough, as long as the shooting stops, at least for a while.
Baku and Yerevan are not currently engaged in hostilities against each other, which makes Trump’s task easier. Especially since both leaders are eager to win his favour. And if Aliyev is trying to play his own geopolitical game, pushing the US into the region and taking advantage of its contradictions with Russia and Iran, then Pashinyan is simply selling his country.
Surrender of Armenian sovereignty
This process began even before Trump’s return to the White House. This January, a charter on Armenian-American strategic partnership was signed, which many experts saw as a de facto surrender of Armenian sovereignty. The document imposed numerous unilateral obligations on Yerevan, including the transition to the US standards, the opening of markets and the renunciation of independence for its own energy infrastructure. Armenia joined the so-called “Agreements 123,” a programme ostensibly aimed at combating nuclear weapons, but in reality cementing the country’s dependence on the United States in the field of nuclear energy. This means that the decision to close the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant, built back in Soviet times, will be made by the United States, which will then impose its own technology, effectively taking control of the country’s energy sector. To put this into perspective, the Armenian Nuclear Power Plant accounts for 40 per cent of Armenia’s total electricity generation.
Last month, Pashinyan openly stated that he was ready to hand over the AEC to foreign companies. He said that he had sent a signal to a number of leading international companies that he might be interested in partnership. He did not specify which countries the companies were from, but it seems very likely that this tasty morsel of Armenia will also go to the Americans.
Also last month, it became known that the US may also gain control over the Zangezur corridor, which connects Azerbaijan with Nakhchivan through Armenian territory and is part of the Middle Corridor from China to Europe. The US ambassador to Turkey was the first to report on the hypothetical possibility of such a scenario. Later, the Spanish publication Periodista Digital published an article claiming that Washington, Baku and Yerevan had already agreed on a memorandum of understanding on the creation of the Zangezur corridor, which would be operated by a private American company.
Official Yerevan, represented by Pashinyan’s press secretary, rushed to deny everything, saying that Armenia does not trade its sovereignty. However, Pashinyan himself had previously confirmed that Washington had sent him a proposal to transfer control of the Zangezur corridor and noted that an agreement could be reached.
What does this mean? It means that the US is taking control of a key section of transport infrastructure that is important for China and Europe, cutting Iran off from the South Caucasus and significantly limiting Russia’s influence in the region. At the same time, despite all Pashinyan’s assurances that Armenia will retain sovereignty over the region, this control will in fact be in the hands of another state with the ability to control decision-making at the national level.
In addition, American private military companies may appear in the country to protect the specialists of the American company that will be given the corridor, and in the future, an American military base may also appear.
Prospects for Turkey
However, experts believe that this project is unlikely to be implemented in the near future, as it affects the fundamental interests of neighbouring states, which see serious dangers, geopolitical risks and so on in it. If this corridor is built, there will be many temptations: control instruments will be needed, and the simplest one is military force.
The US could very easily use this as a pretext to enter the region, which is close to Iran. By and large, control of communications from Nakhchivan to Greater Azerbaijan would give Turkey access to the Caspian Sea, which means that NATO would already have one foot there, and Russia would not like that. It is still unclear what flows will go through and what cargoes will be transported. Any movement will raise questions and doubts, especially since the countries do not particularly trust each other. Turkey may start playing its own game. In the long term, the deal could lead to the complete loss of statehood for Armenia.
A challenge for Iran?
The creation of such a transport line will put Iran in a very awkward position and it may start acting against the US or its allies.
For Iran, this is a matter of life and death. All the speeches today speak of a powerful disgrace — the parties will not be able to somehow ignore Iran’s position and act against it.
This is possible only if Tehran is given huge security guarantees and very serious and global investments in long-term projects, where the United States will not only invest money but also provide Iran with a so-called bright future. As we know from experience, they always promise but do nothing. This could be the beginning of a tougher confrontation with Iran if the United States gets involved in this format. Tehran has serious opportunities to respond quite harshly to its neighbours in connection with this hostile move. Let us not forget that Armenia receives energy resources and investments from Iran and has practically survived thanks to its assistance.
If its leadership has a short memory, they will be reminded of this. It is amusing how the Armenian authorities diligently deny everything, claim that it is all lies and provocation, shout about threats to sovereignty and interference in internal Armenian affairs (for some reason referring to Russia), while at the same time shamelessly handing over and selling everything of any value to their new “allies.”
Looking at the bigger picture, everything that is happening is the logical conclusion of a process that began in 2018 when Pashinyan came to power, riding the wave of regime change technologies developed in the US. Now Turkey is getting its long-awaited corridor to Central Asia, the US is gaining control over a key section of the Middle Corridor and access to the Iranian border, and Azerbaijan is becoming a regional superpower. Pashinyan, having collected his “earnings,” will head to Paris or Washington under security guarantees.
Meanwhile, Armenia risks becoming nothing more than a protectorate of a foreign power — be it the US, Turkey or any other player that views the local population as nothing more than service personnel for its geopolitical infrastructure.
THE ARTICLE IS THE AUTHOR’S SPECULATION AND DOES NOT CLAIM TO BE TRUE. ALL INFORMATION IS TAKEN FROM OPEN SOURCES. THE AUTHOR DOES NOT IMPOSE ANY SUBJECTIVE CONCLUSIONS.
Albert Martin for Head-Post.com
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