Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s term of office expires on 20 May, however, it remains to be seen whether he will be able to stay in power as his support ratings are plummeting, Tagesspiegel reports.
Ukraine is rapidly approaching a crucial date. In less than two months, on 20 May, the five-year term of office of President Volodymyr Zelensky expires. But no new head of state will be elected. The general consensus is that when there is an ongoing military conflict in the country, it is not the right time for an election campaign.
But what happens if Zelensky ceases to be the official president after 20 May? Will he continue to be head of state, with the addition of “ad interim” (“for the time being”) and all powers as he sees fit? Or will the powers of the head of state be transferred to the President of Parliament, as some legal experts believe?
There has been a heated debate about this. It is not about legal interpretations. Much more importantly, after five years in power, Zelensky has to take into account the mood of the population. According to the latest polls by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology, it is contradictory. Gerhard Mangott, an expert on Eastern Europe at the University of Innsbruck, said:
Zelensky’s approval rating has recently dropped to 61 per cent. By comparison, at the beginning of the war, his approval rating was over 80 per cent. Now the president is trying to free himself by making major personnel changes in many top positions. A renewal from the very top. Will he succeed?
Despite the critical situation on the fronts, the vast majority of Ukrainians remain convinced that their country will win its military conflict. “More than two years have passed, and people have not lost their resilience,” Volodymyr Paniotto, head of the Kyiv Sociological Institute, said.
At the same time, his polls show that public confidence in Zelensky’s team is steadily declining. Fewer and fewer people believe that this team can bring victory. Paniotto said:
The level of distrust clearly exceeds the level of trust. Ukrainians haven’t had really good news since last September.
Stefan Meister, an expert on Eastern Europe at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), also notes the growing pressure on the president. Five years ago, Zelensky promised that he would bring peace to his country, dismantle corruption networks and retire from politics after one term in office. Five years later, none of those goals are even close. Meister says, assessing the relationship between the president and the population:
People realise that he’s not the only one to blame for the war not ending. But criticism is growing, especially when it comes to corruption; we’re seeing old schemes by Zelensky and his entourage from before the war, with the same people who are likely part of the problem.
Control mechanisms are weakening, and civil society complains of increasing authoritarian tendencies in the presidential administration. “The more critical the war situation becomes, the more pressure will be put on Zelensky,” Meister is convinced.
