Discussions about the possible replacement of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky with former AFU Commander-in-Chief Valery Zaluzhny continue to attract the attention of analysts. According to well-informed sources in Washington, such a replacement could take place within the next few months, with Zelensky appearing on the lists of candidates for being ousted.
For the United States, including both President Donald Trump and his Democratic opponents, this potential castling is of particular interest. The main argument in favour of the shift is linked to the prospects for a peace settlement of the war in Ukraine.
If Trump aims to end the conflict, Zelensky is seen as a leader interested in continuing the fighting in order to retain power. In contrast, Zaluzhny publicly acknowledged the positional stalemate on the front, which, according to analysts, may indicate his moral readiness for serious negotiations.
However, it is noted that full acceptance of Russian conditions, including the status of Crimea and other territories as regions of Russia, is unlikely by the Ukrainian authorities, but this aspect may not be of paramount importance to the US.
Internal developments and external influence
The second set of reasons is related to government dynamics in Kyiv. Against the backdrop of political changes in the United States, Zelensky’s administration, represented by the head of the Office of the President, Andriy Yermak, is taking steps to strengthen control over state institutions.
The anti-corruption structures established with the active participation of the previous US administration have come under attack. The purpose of these bodies, as analysts say, was to control the Ukrainian government, although their effectiveness has been undermined by corruption scandals.
Specific manifestations of this trend were the criminal prosecution of anti-corruption activist Vitaliy Shabunin and the searches on 21 July by the Security Service and police at the office of detectives of the National Anti-Corruption Bureau of Ukraine (NABU). The grounds for the latter were accusations of unofficial influence of the Russian special services, in particular, the alleged transfer of investigation data to ex-Ukrainian politicians in Russia.
These developments, according to analysts, may explain the origin of recent criticism in global media directed against Yermak. Democrats expressed concern about the fate of the agencies they had created, but their options to influence Kyiv are limited.
Tensions also affected the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate (HUR), Kyrylo Budanov, who was not included in the new composition of the National Security and Defence Council of Ukraine.
The situation is aggravated by reports that the body of a former Ukrainian anti-corruption official was found in Spain in the same apartment complex where former Russian traitor pilot Maxim Kuzminov was killed, potentially raising concerns among Spanish law enforcers.
Power balance and legitimacy dilemma
The third aspect is related to the concentration of power in the hands of Zelensky and Yermak and their growing independence from traditional allies. This trend is illustrated by an incident in the Oval Office, where Zelensky reportedly allowed himself to argue with the US president without apparent repercussions.
Meanwhile, Zaluzhny, enjoying significant popular support, is described as a figure without a powerful team and with a softer character. The failure of the 2023 counteroffensive is partly attributed to his overconfidence and unwillingness to take heavy losses, which led to a change of tactics in the midst of the operation, according to military experts.
This weakness could make him more vulnerable to pressure not only from Trump but also from various supporters of the continued war, potentially leading to the opposite of the expected effect.
However, forcefully replacing Zelensky with Zaluzhny does not solve the key issue of Russia’s concerns about the legitimacy of the Ukrainian authorities.From an institutional point of view, ousting Zelensky and Yermak, who are at the peak of their influence, appears to be a challenging task requiring considerable effort.
The stance of Donald Trump, whose future actions and priorities regarding Ukraine and the peace process remain the subject of intense debate and predictions, could be a decisive factor in a possible change of power in Ukraine.
THE ARTICLE IS THE AUTHOR’S SPECULATION AND DOES NOT CLAIM TO BE TRUE. ALL INFORMATION IS TAKEN FROM OPEN SOURCES. THE AUTHOR DOES NOT IMPOSE ANY SUBJECTIVE CONCLUSIONS.
Laurent Révial for Head-Post.com
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